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Is Turkey’s recent application for membership in the BRICS group a sign the country is moving away from the EU or a political move to put pressure on the bloc? Experts say it could be both — or neither.
Turkey has decided to officially bid to join BRICS, a grouping of some of the world’s emerging economies, originally comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — but largely dominated by Moscow and Beijing.
Omer Celik, spokesperson for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), confirmed Turkey’s application and said the request was « pending. »
« Our president has already expressed multiple times that we wish to become a member of BRICS, » he said in early September. « Our request in this matter is clear, and the process is proceeding within this framework. »
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Turkey’s aspiration, according to Turkish media reports, and said that he will « fully support » Turkey’s inclusion in the gathering.
If Turkey indeed becomes a member of BRICS, often described as a counterbalance to a Western-led global order, it could move further away from joining the European Union (EU) — and from deriving benefits of the 27-member blocutin’s single market.
EU expects candidates to share bloc’s values
Turkey has the right to decide on its own international partnerships, the EU, however, expects candidate country to support EU values, according to Peter Stano, a spokesperson of the EU’s diplomatic service.
« We expect all EU candidate countries to support EU values firmly and unequivocally, to respect obligations deriving from relevant trade agreements, and align with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, » Stano told DW.
« These are significant signals of shared values and interests, and of countries’ strategic orientation, » he added.
Some see Turkey’s aim to join the BRICS group as a reaction to its lagging progress in EU accession talks.
In an annual report last year, European parliamentarians concluded that Turkey’s « alignment rate with the EU’s Common foreign and security policy has slipped to an all-time low of 7%, making it by far the lowest of all enlargement countries. »
Nacho Sanchez Amor, a parliamentarian with the Socialists and Democrats group in the European Parliament, said Turkey’s path to the EU is through reforms.
« We have recently seen a renewed interest from the Turkish government in reviving the EU accession process, » he noted in the 2023 statement. « This will not happen because of geopolitical bargaining, but only when the Turkish authorities show real interest in stopping the continuing backsliding in fundamental freedoms and rule of law in the country. »
Turkey’s accession process started in 2005, but ground to a standstill in 2018 over several issues, including EU concerns on curbs on media freedom, executive control over the judiciary and insufficient civilian oversight of the Turkish security forces.
Eying BRICS a sign of Turkish frustration with EU?
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, a Turkey expert at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), added that Turkey’s interest in BRICS is a manifestation of its frustration with the EU.
Turkey is not only cross with the EU over stalling its accession process but also for not moving forward on modernization of the customs or the trade agreement, nor on a roadmap for visa liberalization, which could clear the way for Turkey’s citizens totravel visa-free to European countries.
The BRICS group has doubled in size since it was formed 15 years ago. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have become members and the group has attracted applications from nearly 20 other countries, including Turkey.
Members do not strive to form a cohesive group with a common security or foreign policy. Instead, its members aim to cooperate on trade and economic expansion and provide what they see as a political counterbalance to international institutions dominated by the United States and Europe.
Still potential for Turkish BRICS plan to backfire
Turkish experts said Erdogan’s overtures toward joining BRICS could be to gain leverage in Turkey’s EU accession bid.
Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institute who specialized in Turkey, said that Turkey’s EU accession process « has long been in a coma, » and Turkey’s policymakers are either trying to revive it or feel they have nothing to lose by joining BRICS.
Europeans have effectively frozen Turkey’s accession process and are about to kick Turkey out from the enlargement agenda altogether while the Balkans have moved ahead, » she told DW. « I think Turkey’s decisionmakers are not looking at BRICS as something that diminishes Turkey’s importance but enhances it in a way that makes the West jealous, gives Turkey a greater chance of getting their attention. »
Unluhisarcikli pointed out the strategy could backfire as Turkey’s entry into BRICS could make EU nations suspicious of Turkey.
« If Turkey were to become a member of BRICS its credibility or reliability within the transatlantic alliance would further decline, » he told DW,
Turkey: A mistrusted, necessary ally
Turkish foreign and security policy decisions have already tarnished the country’s image in Western capitals.
Turkey has refused to back sanctions against Russia, and instead become a top buyer of Russian crude oil. Turkey also supports Hamas, the militant, Islamist, Palestinian group that carried out terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7 and which is classified as a terrorist organization by the European Union as well as the United States, Germany and several other countries.
The United States and other NATO allies were irate over Turkey’s purchase of S400 surface-to-air missile defense systems from Russia in 2017 and again in 2022 when Turkey held up Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO by two years before eventually giving up its opposition this year.
However, Turkey’s strategic location between the west and east makes it critical for NATO and US missions in the region, and the country inked an EU-sought agreement in 2016 allowing for the return of some irregular migrants who reach the bloc from Turkey.
Despite the country’s role in these international crises, the mistrust between Turkey and its allies shows no signs of abating. A German Marshall Fund survey on Turkey’s relations with Western allies said that « Türkiye is the least reliable partner nation, according to the respondents in every country where the survey was conducted. At the same time, Turkish respondents were the least likely to find other allies reliable. »
Turkish experts said that there was some sense in balancing the foreign policy of a country that straddles the west and the east.
« There is no doubt that relations with the EU are infinitely more important, but Erdogan really believes he can play off the West against the non-Western nations, » Aydintasbas added.