The incumbent president fought off a coalition led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – what happens next for the country? By Archie Bland in The Guardian on May 29, 2023.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called it “magnificent”; his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called it “the most unfair election in years”. Either way, after the most significant challenge to his supremacy since he rose to power in Turkey two decades ago, Erdoğan is president again, winning yesterday’s runoff election by 52% to 48%, a margin of more than 2m votes. Now the question is what he will do with that victory.
Erdoğan’s success will have significant consequences for Turkey’s economy, minority groups and refugees, and the country’s position on the international stage – and it could pave the way for a significant consolidation of his power. Today’s newsletter, with Dr Ziya Meral, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank, explains what just happened – and what might happen next.
In depth: ‘Turkey is going to look much more like China in five years’
Before the first round of the Turkish election, most analysts viewed a victory for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a real possibility. It didn’t happen, and while Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has never been run so close, he is celebrating another five years in office this morning. His 4% margin – comfortable, but not a landslide – suggests that there will be “no real change of course in Turkey,” says Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute thinktank in the US.
Even though there were some concerns about irregularities that benefited Erdoğan and his Justice and Development (AKP) party – and he exploited support from influential media outlets largely controlled by his allies – the margin suggests that his victory is indisputable. Kılıçdaroğlu told his supporters that he did not contest the vote count.
“If you see what’s happening in Turkey as simply about manipulating the state, you’re ignoring the really broad social support for what Erdoğan represents,” Ziya Meral said. “Nationalists, Islamists, religious conservatives and those who simply view him as the trusted figure who can turn things around can all support him comfortably. Kılıçdaroğlu’s coalition was only really united by wanting to see Erdoğan toppled.”
Here’s a summary of some of the most important impacts of Erdoğan’s victory.
International relations | A further turn away from the west – but a role in Ukraine
While there have been signs that western countries have held back on public criticism of Erdoğan, “the truth is that relations are already at a historic low with both the US and Europe,” Meral said.
Perhaps the most urgent question is whether Erdoğan will continue to oppose Sweden joining Nato. He may take a more obstructionist stance given the strength of Nato-sceptic ultranationalists in parliament.
“That comes with a subtext of Turkish-US relations,” Meral said. “If there is progress in Washington on the sale of F-16 fighter jets that Turkey wants, or if Biden hosts Erdoğan in the White House, some sort of normalisation is possible.”
Meanwhile, Erdoğan will press on with attempts to find new investment for the Turkish economy among previously adversarial countries in the Middle East “and wherever he can find it”, Meral said, with the old goal of EU membership in tatters.
Erdoğan will also continue to hold a unique position as the leader of a Nato power who maintains relations with Russia. Patrick Wintour writes that “few western diplomats are optimistic” that closer ties with Vladimir Putin can be avoided.
“He has leverage if Nato has a specific, tangible ask of Moscow, as with the Ukraine grain deal,” Meral said – but that role can be overstated. “Russia can already negotiate directly with Nato if it wants to. The channels are there, but it doesn’t use them.”
Economy | No change to approach that brought rampant inflation
Erdoğan has refused to raise interest rates despite massive inflation, insisting his policy will deal with the problem in defiance of economic orthodoxy.
During the campaign, as Kılıçdaroğlu (above) promised a more conventional approach, the president did hint he might change tack – but after his strong first round showing he reaffirmed he would maintain his current course.
“I don’t see that changing,” Meral said. Erdoğan made expensive commitments while campaigning, including a 45% pay rise for 700,000 public sector workers and hundreds of thousands of new homes in areas devastated by February’s earthquake. “There will be a lot of borrowing to fund it. But there will ultimately be a bill for that policy.”
Minority rights | Dismay for Kurds, LGBTQ+ people, and wome
Turkey’s Kurdish minority were seen as important to Kılıçdaroğlu’s hopes of victory. Even after he shocked the leftist pro-Kurdish HDP party that was part of his coalition by pivoting to court far-right voters with an overtly nationalist pitch that reneged on previous promises to Kurds, he kept their reluctant support.
That is because, since 2015 and the collapse of the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) – which Turkey views as a terrorist group – Erdoğan has prosecuted a wide-ranging crackdown.
Some Kurds fear hardened rhetoric from Erdoğan during the campaign could presage an escalation. “I don’t think it will get worse,” Meral said. “But there are already very serious concerns about the freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and Kurdish political representation.”
Meanwhile, Erdoğan has frequently attacked the rights of Turkey’s LGBTQ+ community with appeals to the importance of “a strong family”. And there has been a suspected rise in femicides since Turkey withdrew from the Istanbul convention on violence against women. For more on those fears, see this piece from earlier this month by Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı.
Refugees | Relief for Syrians – and the E
As part of his courtship of the far right, Kılıçdaroğlu also took a hardline stance on the estimated four million mostly Syrian refugees who live in Turkey, the largest number anywhere in the world. On Thursday, he said: “I will send all refugees back home once I am elected as president, period.” That explains why many Afghans, Syrians and others forced to make their homes in Turkey have been hoping for an Erdoğan victory.
“If it was in the UK, we would say that Kılıçdaroğlu’s language was far right,” Miral said. “But there is a disturbing tendency to accept it as what he has to say to win.”
Whatever the other deep concerns about a new term for Erdoğan, “he has been quite responsible about this question. An opposition victory would have meant a new refugee crisis in Europe, because many were likely to go there instead of home. So there will be relief on this subject and a sense that a crisis has been avoided.”
Consolidation of power | A turning point, but not an end
This election has been widely billed as a last chance to stop Erdoğan turning Turkey into a full autocracy – and he is likely to take significant steps to consolidate his power, removing term limits and perhaps lowering the bar from 50% for victory in the first round of the presidential election.
“You can’t underestimate the weight of this result,” Meral said. “Turkey is going to look much more like China in five years’ time – a very long-term leader with a single party, different technocratic appointments running different portfolios, and limited tolerance for opposition.”
At the same time, he cautioned, it is an oversimplification to write off Turkey’s democratic future. “This is a historic turning point, but Turkey has had plenty of those in the past. If the opposition learn the lessons of their failure this term, it is still not impossible that this could be his last.”