The presence of two outsider candidates, Muharrem İnce and Sinan Oğan, who mainly take votes away from the opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu, is the reason why the elections won’t end after the first round, the polls suggest. Bianet reports on April 19, 2023.
Two recent polls suggest that Turkey’s presidential elections may head to a second round, as neither President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu have secured over 50 percent of the votes.
The Aksoy polling company surveyed 1,067 people between April 1 and 8, showing Kılıçdaroğlu with 47.8 percent of the votes and Erdoğan with 38.4 percent. Muharrem İnce, who ran for president as the CHP candidate in the 2018 election, gets 9 percent of the votes, while far-right candidate Sinan Oğan gets 4.8 percent.
Meanwhile, the MAK company conducted a poll between April 10-16 with 5,750 people across 52 provinces, revealing Kılıçdaroğlu with 47.8 percent, Erdoğan with 43.7 percent, Muharrem İnce with 3.4 percent, and Sinan Oğan with 4 percent.
If neither candidate manages to secure more than 50 percent of the votes, a runoff election will be held two weeks after the initial round.
The outsiders
Both polls suggest that the presence of two outsider candidates, İnce and Oğan, who mainly take votes away from Kılıçdaroğlu, is the reason why the elections won’t end after the first round. If the presidential election goes to a second round, the result of the parliamentary election will be crucial, as the candidate whose side gets the majority will have the upper hand.
The parliamentary elections are expected to be closely contested between the ruling AKP and the main opposition party, the CHP, according to the polls.
The AKP remains the most popular party, with support ranging from 33.1 percent to 35.8 percent, while the CHP’s support ranges from 29.1 percent to 30.6 percent.
Other parties expected to gain significant support include the İYİ Party, the Green Left Party, and the MHP. Both pollsters predict that the result of the parliamentary election will be crucial in case the presidential election goes to a second round, as the candidate whose side gets the majority will have an advantage.