The ceremonial naming of Turkey’s homegrown fifth-generation-billed fighter jet is the latest in a string of milestones for Ankara’s domestic aircraft industry, in what analyst say show real progress even if it comes at a convenient time before crucial elections. By Agnes Helou, Breaking Defence, on May 2, 2023.
On Monday incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed the fighter, previously known as TF-X or the national combat aircraft, would be named KAAN, reportedly a reference to historic titles for Turkic and Mongolian rulers.
The plane, a 21-meter-long twin-engine fighter jet expected to reach a maximum speed of Mach 1.8, will include capabilities such as “situational awareness, optimized pilot workload, combat damage detection, new generation mission systems, low observability, precision strike, and internal weapon bay,” according to Turkey’s Anadolu news agency. It’s designed to fly up to an altitude of 55,000 feet.
The ceremonial roll-out for the naming of the jet came just days after two other aircraft reached their own milestones: TAI-made Hurjet trainer made its maiden flight, and the ATAK-2 helicopter’s engine revved up for the first time.
The firsts come at a crucial time in domestic politics for Erdogan, who is in the last days of a tight race for re-election. As Breaking Defense has reported, some analysts see the sudden burst of defense news out of Turkey as part of Erdogan’s pitch to voters as a leader in defense technology.
Arda Mevlutoglu, a Middle East defense expert who works at a Turkey-based defense consulting firm, said recently that of course “any reasonable ruling political party or leader would use major achievements in high-tech industries such as defense and aerospace.” But he told Breaking Defense that these milestones have been a long time coming – the result of Turkish investment in its domestic capability going back decades.
The Wrath Of KAAN
The newly dubbed KAAN fighter was envisioned by the Turkish government more than a decade ago to replace the nation’s aging F-16 fleet, and the project officially began in 2016. The need became more acute when the US kicked Turkey out of the international F-35 program in 2019 over Turkish interest in Russian air defenses.
That Turkey was able to produce the KAAN, via Turkish Aerospace Industries, doesn’t mean that it’s given up on joining the F-35 team altogether, according to Ali Bakir, an expert on Turkey and senior researcher at the Ibn Khaldon Center at Qatar University.
“In fact, if the relations with the US are set to be improved anytime in the near future, Turkey would still like to acquire its F-35s,” Bakir said. (A key US lawmaker said last year that the US would not consider letting Turkey back in in exchange for Turkish support of Finland and Sweden’s ascension to NATO.)
Serhat Guvenc, professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University, noted that beyond losing out on the F-35 itself, Turkey was also forced to go without knowledge that could help speed KAAN’s development.
“Now that it is denied access to the world’s most advanced technological knowledge pool, it may find itself in a position to re-invent the wheel to make progress,” he said. “Therefore, without an international partner, it may take many more years to mature the [KAAN].”
Still, KAAN has made progress, and Guvenc predicted it could become operational by the end of the decade. As for when it might make its first flight, a test pilot suggested to Anadolu that was much closer and would come after the plane had conducted high-speed taxi tests. Engine and systems integration tests have already been done, he said. But Guvenc allowed the timing for that development could have more to do with optics than anything.
“It may take off for its maiden flight anytime due to political exigencies to saturate the public with success stories in defense production two weeks ahead of the elections,” he said. “However, compared to Hurjet, [KAAN] involves engineering challenges of a qualitatively higher degree.”
Hurjet And ATAK-2 Maiden Flights
Speaking of Hurjet, on April 25th, TAI reached the milestone of flying the first in-house designed jet aircraft. According to the announcement, the Turkish aircraft had a 26-minute flight test and reached 14,000 feet at a speed of 250 knots.
“For a rising manufacturer like Turkey, producing advanced supersonic, multi-role, training and light attack aircraft with local capacities is a major achievement,” Bakir said. “The project was state supported. Within only five years, TAI, the manufacturing company, was able to put Hurjet in the sky.”
He highlighted that the main aim of the project is to replace Turkey’s legacy T-38 trainer aircraft fleet, meet the rising local needs and look for export opportunities.
Meanwhile, the prototype of Turkey’s first indigenous heavy-class attack helicopter, the T929 ATAK-2, has successfully started its engine for the first time. According to its manufacturer, the multi-role heavy helo “boasts a 2,500-horsepower engine, can take-off with a load of 11.5 tons.” Its maximum expected speed is 175 knots with 1.5 ton payload, and it is equipped with a 30 mm gun.
The helicopter, also developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), is now set to undergo engine ground testing before its pwn maiden flight.
Mevlutoglu also noted Turkey is developing two unmanned jet capabilities, the Anka 3 and the Bayraktar Kizilelma. The Anka 3 is meant to be a “loyal wingman”-type drone to fly alongside the KAAN, and the Kizilelma is envisioned as a multi-role combat drone, he said.
Politics In The Air
All these developments may come at a key time for Erdogan, but the analysts said their import is wider than a presidential election and affects Turkey’s long-term security.
“Would he still utilize them as a showcase of determination and success? I think yes, because if they were failed projects, he would not do that,” Bakir said. “Regardless, I believe that the defense industry sector in Turkey should not be part of the political quarrels or polarization. The success of this sector is meant to serve the country, its national interests, and all the Turkish citizens regardless of their narrow political or ideological affiliations.”
Still, while Guvenc said that while the Hurjet was “unreservedly a milestone in Turkey’s indigenous capabilities,” the timing of the announcements, and the likely first flight of the KAAN and ATAK-2, are unlikely to be coincidences.
“They probably did string a chord with Erdogan’s core constituency. However, it is doubtful if they will boost Erdogan’s popularity with the average Turkish citizen whose main concern is inflation,” he said.