MIDDLE EAST EYE, November 8, 2024
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism on Friday regarding Donald Trump’s second term as US president, hoping it would help repair Turkey’s strained relationship with the United States.
Erdogan indicated that he would aim to discuss key issues with Trump, including the purchase of F-35 fighter jets and resolving their disagreements over Ankara’s purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defence systems.
« Although there were occasional differences of opinion, the model partnership between Turkey and the US is indisputable, » Erdogan said, noting that he previously worked closely with Trump and had invited him for an official visit next year.
One notable aspect of Erdogan’s statement was his emphasis on utilising « phone diplomacy » to address critical issues, such as Israel’s wars on Gaza and Lebanon and Trump’s potential decision to withdraw US forces from Syria.
Last time he was in power, Trump gave Erdogan his personal phone number. »We were able to establish contact within 24 hours in the past, and we tried to achieve results through telephone diplomacy accordingly, » he said, adding: « I do not anticipate any issues in this regard during this term. »
While Ankara officially refrained from endorsing any candidate during the US presidential campaign, Erdogan did not hesitate to call Trump in July to express his goodwill following an assassination attempt targeting the former president.
Erdogan also cancelled a visit to Washington in May, reportedly to avoid meeting with US President Joe Biden, who was facing criticism from Muslim Americans for his stance on the Israeli war on Gaza.
Room for better dialogue
On Friday, Erdogan urged Trump to honour his campaign pledges and take steps to end the Israeli onslaught on Gaza and Lebanon, calling for an immediate halt to arms shipments to Israel as a first step.
« There wasn’t a festive mode in Ankara but we believe there is a big room for better dialogue with Trump, » a Turkish official told Middle East Eye.
« We weren’t surprised by the election results and don’t expect a perfect relationship, but it could work very well under the right conditions. »
Turkish columnist Yahya Bostan, writing for Yeni Safak, revealed this week that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Richard Grenell, a senior foreign policy advisor to Trump and a potential candidate for secretary of state, during the Nato summit in Washington in July.
Grenell recently described Fidan as « an old friend » and emphasised that Washington should treat Turkey with respect as a Nato ally.
Retired Colonel Rich Outzen, a former US State Department official involved in Middle East affairs, said Trump’s foreign policy would take a hard-nosed approach to escalation management and deterrence. »Based on his public statements, Trump’s priorities would likely include ending the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, restraining Iran’s regional malign activities and nuclear ambitions, and expanding trade and diplomatic deals aimed at increasing stability and fostering long-term peace, » Outzen told MEE.
« A lot will depend on the people he appoints to key positions. »
While figures like Grenell in the administration could improve relations with Turkey, others like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – who has been openly critical of Erdogan – could complicate the relationship.
Pompeo, known for his hawkish stance on Iran, is reportedly being considered for the secretary of defence position. Ankara opposes unilateral US efforts to isolate Iran, fearing that such actions could trigger increased irregular migration to Turkey and undermine trade.
James Jeffrey, a former US Special Representative for Syria during Trump’s first administration, expressed general optimism about the future of US-Turkey relations.
« Relations are currently good, albeit transactional, » Jeffrey told MEE. « Trump will likely bring a more personal touch to the relationship, given the rapport between the two presidents during his first term. »
Robert F Kennedy Jr, a close associate of Trump, told Tucker Carlson on Wednesday that Trump would like to withdraw 500 US troops from northern Syria, where Turkey is actively engaged in hostilities with Syrian Kurdish groups supported by Washington.
Jeffrey, however, warned that such a move could have serious consequences.
« It would be a serious mistake, as it would empower Iran and Assad, creating a vacuum that could disadvantage our various partners, including Turkey, » he said.
Key role on Ukraine
Erdogan also expressed Turkey’s willingness to play a role in ending the Ukraine crisis by hosting mediation talks. He emphasised that Turkey has maintained contact with both Russia and Ukraine while affirming Ukraine’s sovereignty.
« If, during Trump’s term, we see a US administration that approaches the issue from a solution-oriented perspective, we could easily bring this war to an end, » Erdogan said.
« We are a country that has successfully brought both sides to the same table. We’ve done it many times, and we can do it again. »
Turkey hosted ceasefire talks in Istanbul in 2022 between Russia and Ukraine and brokered a landmark grain deal between the pair that same year. Ankara has also facilitated several prisoner exchanges between Moscow and Kyiv.
« If President Trump is going to broker any sort of deal, Turkey must be involved in some capacity, » said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at Washington-based conservative think tank the Hudson Institute.
« With recent confidence-building measures in the defence industry, such as the sale of F-16s and the joint production of 155mm artillery shells, there are opportunities for both sides to take small steps toward boosting confidence, which could unlock future cooperation. »