MEMO, JANUARY 7, 2025
A committee set up by Israel’s government has warned authorities of the apparent threat Turkiye poses to Israeli interests in the region, predicting the possibility of a direct confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
On Monday, the Nagel Committee – established by the Israeli government – submitted its latest report on Israel’s defence budget and security strategy to the country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
In the report, it highlighted Turkiye’s alleged ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence in the region, warning that such a goal could lead to further heightened tensions with Israel with the potential of an escalation into conflict.
Predicting that Turkish-backed militias in neighbouring Syria may act as proxies for the purpose of fuelling regional instability, the report stated that the “threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat”, referring to Israel’s primary regional rival which had supported the late Assad regime in Syria up until 8 December.
The warning echoed warnings given by numerous former and current Israeli military and political figures over the past month, who hold the view that the new Syrian government and its close relationship with the Turkish government – which is providing significant diplomatic and infrastructural assistance to the new authorities in Damascus – could counter Israeli interests in the region.
The Commission proposed an increase in Israel’s already-huge defence budget by up to NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) annually over the next five years, in order to ensure that Israeli forces are equipped and prepared to handle regional threats such as those alleged challenges posed by Turkiye.
The report’s recommendations to the Israeli government included the acquirement of advanced weaponry such as more F-15 fighter jets and the refuelling of aircraft, drones and satellites to increase Israel’s long-range strike capabilities. It also proposed the enhancement of the occupation’s air defence systems, as well as the beefing up of Israeli border security through the construction of a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank.
Following the report’s submission, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed it by stating that “we are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future”.