Dr. Alon Liel predicts Erdogan will indirectly support Palestinians through aid and smuggling, not direct military action against Israel.
THE JERUSALEM POST, July 30, 2024
Dr. Alon Liel, former Foreign Ministry director and former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, commented on the possibility of a Turkish invasion of Israel in light of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s recent threats to intervene in the Israel-Hamas war, Dr. Liel told Radio North 104.5FM on Tuesday.
« He is hinting that he may try to increase military assistance to help the Palestinians in their fight, both Hamas and those fighting in the West Bank, » Dr. Liel told Gadi Ness.
Dr. Liel added, « He previously attempted this when he set up a headquarters in Turkey for them, intending possibly to conduct military operations, smuggle weapons, and transfer money in order to purchase weapons. It is unlikely that Erdogan, who is known to act irrationally, would send Turkish soldiers to invade Israel.
« I believe we should take him very seriously, as he has followed through on many of his other threats, such as halting trade with Israel. He is already trying to help the Palestinians, sending casualties to hospitals in Turkey, and certainly finding ways to transfer money to them, » he further noted.
Indirect support of anti-Israel forces
« In my opinion, what he will try to do is strengthen the forces fighting against us either through sending money or smuggling across the Egyptian border. By the way, he has made significant improvements in relations with Egypt, including smuggling to the West Bank and Jerusalem. He has always had a presence in Jerusalem, even if indirectly. »
Dr. Liel also claimed: « If something significant happens in Lebanon, Erdogan sees any Israeli entry into Lebanon as halfway towards him. He could send forces to Lebanon; he has done this in the past, including sending destroyers and combat ships, to Lebanon’s territorial waters. »
He concluded: « By the way, if we were in a proper diplomatic position, we would need to sever relations with him. However, there is a significant weakness in our diplomacy; we cannot make him pay a price for statements alone, so he is effectively exploiting the situation. »