The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country.
Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports.
« This was a serious crisis, » said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. « And while it’s partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention. »
The row between Libya’s two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict’s repercussions continue.
« A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I’m not describing a scenario of war, but I’m describing a more volatile environment, » he said.
Turkish-Egyptian relations
However, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions.
Libye, tête de pont de la Turquie en Afrique
« We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability, » pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis.
« Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree, » said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. « So it’s a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey. »
Economic crises
With both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country’s rapprochement and Libyan collaboration.
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« These two countries are very important to one another, » said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst
« They’ve figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has.
« So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment. »
Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters.
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At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya’s Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation.
« What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis, » said Harchaoui.
« And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board.
« But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place, » he added.
By:Dorian Jones