Syria in crossfire as Turkish-Israeli rivalry heats up over Assad’s successors/Dorian Jones / RFI

RFI, le 17 mars, 2025

The overthrow of Bachar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and its replacement by new rulers with close ties to Turkey are ringing alarm bells in Israel. RFI’s correspondent reports on how Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry could impact Syria’s future. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s already strong support for the militant group Hamas has strained relations with Israel.

Now, Syria is threatening to become a focal point of tension.

Earlier this month, Erdogan issued a widely interpreted warning to Israel to stop undermining Damascus’s new rulers.

« Those who hope to benefit from the instability of Syria by provoking ethnic and religious divisions should know that they will not achieve their goals, » Erdogan declared at a meeting of ambassadors.

Erdogan’s speech followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s offer to support Syria’s Druze and Kurdish minorities.

« We will not allow our enemies in Lebanon and Syria to grow, » Netanyahu told the Knesset. « At the same time, we extend our hand to our Druze and Kurdish allies. »

Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told RFI that Israel view is not very optimistic about the future of Syria, and sees it as a potential threat to Israel.

Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda

« The fact that Turkey will be dominant in Syria is also dangerous for Israel, » adds Lindenstrauss.

« Turkey could build bases inside Syria and establish air defences there. This would limit Israel’s room for manoeuvre and could pose a threat. Israel wants to avoid this and should therefore adopt a hard-line approach. »

Deepening rivalry

Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry is shaping conflicting visions for the future of Syria.

Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics’ Contemporary Turkish Studies Department, « Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilised unitary state under Ahmad al-Sharaa’s transitional government.

« Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border, » added Nasi.

Israeli forces are occupying Syrian territory along their shared northern border, which is home to much of Syria’s Druze minority.

However, Israeli hopes of drawing Syria’s Kurds away from Damascus suffered a setback when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls part of Syria, signed an agreement on 10 March to merge part of its operations with Syria’s transitional government.

Mutual distrust

As Damascus consolidates control, analysts suggest Israel will be increasingly concerned about Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria.

« If Turkey establishes military posts in the south of the country, close to the Israeli border, presumably with the permission of the government in Damascus, » warns Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, « then the two sides would be in close proximity, with military forces on both sides. That, I believe, would create a highly dangerous, volatile, and incendiary situation. »

As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead

Analysts warn that if Turkey extends its military presence to include airbases, this could threaten Israel’s currently unchallenged access to Syrian airspace.

However, some observers believe that opportunities for cooperation may still exist.

« Things can change, » says Israeli security analyst Lindenstrauss.

« Israel and Turkey could resume cooperation and potentially contribute to Syria’s reconstruction in a way that does not threaten Israel. However, this does not appear to be the path the Erdogan regime is currently taking, nor does it seem to be the direction chosen by Netanyahu and his government. »

With Erdogan and Netanyahu making little secret of their mutual distrust, analysts warn that their rivalry is likely to spill over into Syria, further complicating the country’s transition from the Assad regime.

By:Dorian Jones